Looking back at global politics in 2025, I think this year might be the historical line when the multipolar world order became reality rather than prediction. The rift between USA and the rest of NATO is probably irreparable in terms of trust, at least for a generation. On the positive side, I think Europe is doing far better than is commonly thought. EU now has a closer relationship to many other parts of the world than it used to, perhaps especially to Canada, but also to countries like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, and to some extent also to the Pacific Rim in general, to Central Asia, and Latin America.
The fact that EU economy has a higher part industry than USA might be less of a weakness than we used to think, especially in a trade war. EU is also the worlds largest exporter of food. With the addition of Ukraine that is going to be even stronger. Meanwhile USA is facing housing and AI bubbles. Economies in eastern Europe have become significantly stronger the last couple of decades. This shifts the power balance in Europe but strengthens it in the long term. EU is now funding the Ukrainian defense without USA, and doing massive military buildup. Russia is sending soldiers in handcuffs and horses to the front. Defense against Russia is also likely to remain a priority, simply because Russia remains a direct threat to countries in eastern and northern Europe, also bringing these countries closer to each other.
The most obvious weakness of EU seems in fact to be how weak it looks to many people. There is obviously Russian influence trying to promote this image. More importantly, I think it comes from American media influence on European media and culture. Unlike the Russian influence, this is not just a planed operation, it is the lingering power of American media and culture. EU is a complex organization, especially compared to how political strength is understood in the country that elected Donald Trump twice. Europe doesn't have an obvious leader. It's a group of several countries run by committees. It also doesn't have a united public sphere, and the media logic appears to favor the more theatrical drama of American politics, often to the extent that at least Scandinavian media pay more attention to DC than to neighboring countries, not to speak of the EU. This might be worse in countries where journalists generally are unable to follow media in other languages than English and their own languages. This remains a problem.
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